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home : opinion : columnist November 25, 2020

11/16/2020 12:01:00 AM
Guest Column
When The Fed Talks Inflation, Bond Investors Listen
What the Fed's new policy may mean for you.

J. Cain Leonard, CEP®
Leonard Wealth Management


Most recently, you may have read that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced a change in how the Fed views inflation. In the past, the Fed said it would consider adjusting short-term rates when inflation approached 2 percent. But in light of 2020’s many challenges, the Fed’s new policy may allow inflation to run above 2 percent for a period of time before any shift in monetary policy is considered.1

For many, bonds are a critical component of their overall investment strategy. So any change in Fed policy regarding inflation may influence a portfolio. That's why we feel it’s so important to understand that the market value of a bond will fluctuate with changes in interest rates. In other words, when interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds will typically fall.2

There’s no doubt this will be a subtle change for many. But for bond investors, the policy shift may indicate that the Fed has given itself more flexibility in the future.

But, what does that mean for the outlook for the bond market as a whole? It’s unclear. However, lower levels of unemployment in recent years have not led to higher inflation. This new phenomenon runs counter to the Phillips curve, a concept which states that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship. With this data in mind and the changes announced by Chairman Powell, it could be argued that the Fed believes the relationship between unemployment and inflation has changed.3

Keep in mind that if an investor sells a bond before maturity, it may be worth more or less than the initial purchase price. By holding a bond to maturity, an investor will receive the interest payments due plus your original principal, barring default by the issuer. Investments seeking to achieve higher yields also involve a higher degree of risk.

Cain Leonard may be reached at 704-735-5220 or cain@leonardwealth.net Leonardwealth.net

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Investment advisory services offered only by duly registered individuals through AE Wealth Management, LLC (AEWM). AEWM and Leonard Wealth Management are not affiliated companies. Neither the firm nor its agents or representatives may give tax or legal advice. Individuals should consult with a qualified professional for guidance before making any purchasing decisions. Leonard Wealth Management is not affiliated with the US government or any governmental agency.

Third party sources are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed by either AE Wealth Management or Leonard Wealth Management. Bond obligations are subject to the financial strength of the bond issuer and its ability to pay. Before investing consult your financial adviser to understand the risks involved with purchasing bonds. 715127 – 9/20

Citations.

1. Schwab.com, August 27, 2020
2. Asset allocation is an approach to help manage investment risk. Asset allocation does not guarantee against investment loss.
3. Investopedia.com, May 19, 2019



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