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home : news : news July 10, 2020

5/12/2020 9:30:00 AM
Have We Reached The Peak?
Screen shot of Megaputer's COVID-19 report on peak dates for Confirmed Cases.
Screen shot of Megaputer's
COVID-19 report on peak
dates for Confirmed Cases.

Wayne Howard
Staff Writer

An Indiana firm has released a report that says the peak in new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US was reached in mid-April. Megaputer Intelligence uses data from various sources to make 30-day predictions of COVID-19 confirmed and active cases, recoveries and deaths, along with the dates and locations of possible shortages of medical resources on the county level. The predictions are based on machine learning/AI models developed using PolyAnalyst™, a Megaputer program.

“Instead of a single peak in new confirmed COVID-19 cases for the US followed by a steep drop, our model predicts a long plateau of relatively high new confirmed cases extending through May 21st and a slow decline after that,” says Sergei Ananyan, Ph.D., CEO of Megaputer Intelligence. “The main reason is that while the states that got infected early like New York, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Florida, and Georgia are seeing significant declines in the number of new cases, for many other states like Illinois, Virginia, Maryland, Texas, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, California and Arizona the number of new COVID-19 cases are predicted to keep climbing for a while. Armed with the understanding of COVID-19 evolution on an individual county level, authorities should be able to orchestrate a safe and speedy return to normal life.”

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Megaputer offers for free public use a new forecast for the number of COVID-19 cases and peak dates for individual US states and counties. 

According to the report, North Carolina's peak in new cases is expected this week as is true of several other states. South Carolina had its peak in April according to the report. Like North Carolina, Arizona and California are expected to see their peak in new cases Thursday. Mississippi's peak is predicted to be Wednesday. South Dakota's peak is predicted for Saturday; Ohio's, for Sunday (May 17th). Arkansas, Illinois, Minnesota & Maryland should also see their peak for new cases next week if the report is correct; New Mexico, Wisconsin, Virginia, and North Dakota, not until the end of the month; but the report says all 50 states should see their peak in new cases before June 1st.

Interactive graphical report:

About Megaputer: Headquartered in Bloomington, Indiana, just down the road from Indiana University, Megaputer has been developing data and text mining software since 1997. Our mission is to provide our customers with analytical tools and solutions that both deliver results and are easy to use.

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